Market Update

Sold and closed single family homes in Albany County for November '08 numbered 132 which was down from last month's total of 170 and down from November '07 which was 186. Average days on market for sold homes was 59 days down slightly from last month's 62 days. The average selling price was up to $262,793 but there was a large sale of $1.7 million that affected that average. The sale to list price ratio was up slightly to 97.3%. November year to date closed sales were 1916 vs 2329 last year, down 18%. Year to date average selling price is unchanged from last year at $236,000. And days on market and sale to list price ratio are also unchanged at 66 days and 97% respectively.

The current inventory of single family homes in Albany County stood at 1331 at the beginning of December and November pending single family sales were 113, down from 150 last month. There is currently an 11.8 month supply of homes on the market in Albany County...definitely a buyer's market. Home mortgage rates are now in the 5.5% - 6% range for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. For those looking for a buying opportunity, these next six to twelve months appear to be it.

Market Update

Sold and closed single family homes in Albany County for October '08 numbered 170 which was up from 158 last month but down from 230 during October '07. Average days on market edged up to 62 from 60 last month and 59 last October with sellers realizing the same on average from last month at 96.9% of their asking price. The average selling price dropped slightly to $232,460 in October '08 from $234,795 last month. 10 month year to date figures show declines in closed home sales from 2141 last year to 1757 through October 31 of this year. Average days on market, average selling price and average sale price to list price ratio are all off slightly from the same period last year...this years numbers are 67 (vs. 66) days on market, $234,795 (vs. $236,550) average sale price, and 97.2% (vs. 97.5%) sale to list price ratio.

The current inventory of single family homes for sale as of November 3 was 1377, a slight decline from last month. However with 150 pending contracts written in October, the single family inventory of homes for sale is now at a 9 month supply. Home mortgage rates are in the mid 6% range for 30 year fixed mortgages.

Market Update

Sold and closed homes in Albany County for September '08 numbered 158 which was down from 202 in September '07. Average days on market remained the same at 60 and sellers were realizing on average the same in September '08 as in September '07...96.4%. The average sale price was significantly higher at $256,000 vs. $219,000. It appears more higher priced homes sold last month. The 3rd quarter year to date numbers show an 18% decline in the number of homes sold and closed from 1910 through September 30, '07 to 1561 for the same period this year. Days on market (68) and the percentage of asking price sellers were realizing (97.2%) stayed the same from 3rd quarter '07 to 3rd quarter '08. Average sale price slipped 1% from $238,833 in "07 to $235,483 this year.

The current inventory level in Albany County dropped slightly from a 7.3 month supply of homes on the market last month to a 6.7 month supply this month. There are currently 1393 homes on the market vs. 209 that went pending in September '08. Home mortgage rates continue to hold in the low 6% range and underwriting criteria remain strict.

Market Update

Sold and closed homes in Albany County for August '08 were 210 down from 256 last August. Average days on market remained about the same at 60 this August vs. 62 last August and sellers were averaging 97.1% of their asking price this August vs. 97.5% last August. Year to date closed sales in Albany County through August 31 were down 20% from the same period in '07, 1367 vs. 1708. Days on market for August 31 year to date were 69 days this year vs. 68 days last year. The sale to list price ratio fell from 97.4% this year compared to 97.8% last year. Average selling prices have fallen about 3% from $241,000 in '07 to $233,000 this year to date.

With regard to current inventory levels in Albany County as of September 1, 2008 we have a 7.3 month supply of homes on the market (1368 active listings vs. 187 pending contracts in August). If inventory of available homes holds for another month or two at this level we will be in a buyer's market. Home mortgage interest rates continue to hold in the 6.25 to 6.5% range for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Underwriting criteria have become more stringent and buyers must be carefully qualified as underwriting criteria are constantly changing.

H.R. 3221 is Signed into Law

On July 30, the President signed into law the "Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008". While there are a number of provisions aimed at reducing the risk of foreclosure for individuals and various reforms affecting the FHA program and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, there is one provision that may be significant to home buyers. "Qualified" home purchases during the period April 8,2008 and June 30, 2009 will allow the purchaser to claim a $7500 tax "credit" on their federal tax return. The "credit" is repayable over 15 years, in effect making it an interest free loan from the federal government.

Annual Real Estate Conference

Fraida and Tony just returned last week from the annual Star Power real estate conference in Orlando which was attended by 1200 of the top 1% of realtors in the U. S. and Canada. Attending this conference for each of the past 10 years has enabled them to stay at the cutting edge of the real estate industry as they compare notes with some of the top performing realtors in North America. Many markets around the U. S. are adjusting from the highs achieved during the 2002 - 2005 period. The markets that had the greatest price gains are now having the greatest price reductions as the supply of homes for sale are well in excess of the current demand for homes in most markets (although not all, Charlotte NC to name just one). Short sales are becoming common in some markets as sellers and lenders work together to get homes sold and closed. Seller's are generally faced with the the reality that today they are in both a "beauty contest" and a "price war", that is, they have to have the best looking house with the best price among the competition in their price range.

Market Update

July '08 showed 65 fewer homes sales closed than the previous July in Albany County (191 vs. 256) and down 7 from last month (191 in July '08 vs.198 in July '07. The average price increased from $251,000 in July '07 to $256,000 this past July but average days on the market increased from 52 last year to 60 this year. The sale to list price ratio was unchanged at 98%. At the beginning of this month of August there were 1363 single family homes on the market in Albany County. Pending contracts in last month (July) were 172 (vs. 225 last month) which indicates a 7.9 month supply of homes on the market. This is up from last month when there was a 5.9 month supply of homes. The market velocity (the rate at which homes are selling) has slowed some this month resulting in the 2 month increase in the supply of homes. A six month supply of homes is generally considered to be market that is in balance (neither a buyer's or seller's market). When the supply of homes exceeds six months for several months in a row then it is considered to be a buyer's market. Interest rates are still in the mid 6% range, which is still historically low although lenders underwriting criteria have generally tightened as a result of the sub-prime credit problem.

Market Update

June '08 showed 96 fewer home sales closed than the previous June in Albany County (198 vs. 294) but up from 146 last month. The average sale price fell form $248,000 to $235,000 and average days on the market increased from 62 to 67. The sale to list price ratio declined slightly from 97.8% to 97.5%. The first half numbers show 908 Albany County homes sold and closed this year vs. 1193 during the first half of last year. The average selling price was down slightly during this period from $233,000 last year to $230,000 this year. Average days on market are the same at 72 and the sale to list price ratio is off slightly from 97.7% to 97.2%. Pending Albany County contracts in June '08 (signed purchase contracts) numbered 225 against an inventory of 1338 homes resulting in a 5.9 month supply of homes. This is down slightly from May where we had a 6.4 month supply of homes on the market. Albany County does not have the excessive inventory many other areas of the country have at this time. Thirty year fixed mortgage rates for excellent credit borrowers are currently in the 6.25 to 6.5% range. Jumbo loans run about 1/2% higher.

So far this year, Fraida Varah Real Estate Group seller's are averaging 1% more in selling price and selling their home 1 month sooner than the average Albany County home seller.

Market Update

May '08 showed 75 fewer home sales closed than the previous May in Albany County (146 vs. 221). The average price increased from $224,000 to $238,000 but the average days on market increased from 60 to 82. The average sale to list price ratio also declined from 98.4% to 96.8%. June's numbers will likely be better as indicated in the pending contracts number in the previous post below.

Market Update

Preliminary numbers for May indicate that there are currently 1275 active single family homes on the market in Albany County and they have been on the market an average of 126 days. So far there are 200 single family homes that went under contract so far this month and they have been on the market an average of 63 days. Average sale price so far this month has been $250,000.

April sales results for single family homes in Albany County showed that the number of houses sold (closed) in April declined from 184 (April ' 07) to 160. Both the average and median sales prices also declined. The average sales price was $225,000 for this past April compared to $237,000 for April ' 07. The sales price to list price ratio also declined slightly compared to last April from 97.1% to 96.9%. However, the house that sold sold a little faster as the average days on market also decreased from 84 to 66 days.

During the first quarter of 2008, both the average and median single family house sale prices in Albany County held at the same level as the first quarter in 2007. The average selling price during the first quarter of this year was $230,000 in ' 08 compared to $228,000 for the first quarter of ' 07. The sale price to list price ratio dropped slightly during the first quarter of ' 08 from 97.4% to 97% but the average days on market also dropped from 80 to 75. Even though the number of closed sales during the first quarter dropped from 494 in ' 07 to 367 this year, the number of homes on the market this year compared to last has also dropped resulting in stable sales prices. Mortgage rates continued to be in the 6% range for thirty year fixed mortgages.

2007 Market Summary

With all the negative media coverage of the national real estate market, it is important to keep in mind that real estate market conditions are local in nature and that the national numbers are aggregates of hundreds of markets across the country. The national and local numbers that are reported are never put in context so let’s do that now for the local Albany County Market.

The number of closed residential sales in Albany County in 2007 was 2476, down 5% from 2006. The average selling price in 2007 was $236,459, up about 4% over 2006. Now let’s put these numbers in perspective. The average number of closed residential sales each year in Albany County since 1998 is 2531 . Closed residential sales during this period have ranged from a low of 2259 in 1998 to a high of 2799 in 2004. Average Albany County sale prices have increased from $132,735 in 1998 to $236,459 in 2007, that is an increase of 78% over the last 10 years or an average increase of 7.8% per year. The number of Albany county residential listings during the past 10 years has ranged from 3,022 in 2003 to 3,850 in 2007, averaging 3504 per year during that time. During the last 10 years, 30 year fixed mortgage rates have ranged from 7% to 5.5%, hitting a high of 8.5% in 2000. Rates during this period were significantly below the rates experienced during the 1980’s and 1990’s. The current 30 year fixed mortgage rate is now below 5.5%. The last time they were at this point was August of 2003 which was the first time fixed rates were below 6% in over 50 years.

The bottom line is that the Albany County market is a very stable real estate market and with interest rates currently at historic lows it is a good time to be buying or selling a home in Albany County. There is currently a window of opportunity for buyers. These low mortgage rates cannot be expected to remain at this level for more than the next 6-12 months.